Swatch Group Rebuts Morgan Stanley's Watch Industry Report

Swatch Group recently published an official statement directly addressing the latest "Swiss Watcher" report from Morgan Stanley. The Swiss watchmaking giant strongly disputes the investment bank's analysis, labeling some of its key findings regarding sales, market share, and profitability of Swatch Group brands as inaccurate and based on flawed methodologies. This public rebuttal highlights the ongoing tension between financial analysts, who rely on estimates for a largely opaque industry, and watch manufacturers who often keep detailed brand-specific performance confidential.

The controversy stems from the ninth edition of Morgan Stanley's annual report, which suggested a decline in market share and sales for many Swatch Group brands in 2025. Specifically, the report positioned Omega, a flagship brand of Swatch Group, in fifth place among top watch brands, down from its previous third-place ranking. Swatch Group's letter directly challenges these assessments, arguing that the report's assumptions lead to erroneous conclusions. While the Swatch Group, as a publicly traded entity, discloses overall financial results, it does not typically release individual brand performance data, leaving analysts to formulate their own projections for the various brands within the Swiss watch sector.

A point of particular contention for Swatch Group was Morgan Stanley's assertion that Longines, the conglomerate's second-largest brand, incurred losses in 2025. Swatch Group unequivocally refutes this, stating that Longines actually recorded a 16.6% profit margin on net sales for that year. This stark contradiction underscores the fundamental disagreement over the data's accuracy. Additionally, Swatch Group challenged the report's findings on Tissot, claiming that the brand, known for its PRX models, saw a 3% increase in sales in 2025, contrary to Morgan Stanley's estimated 5% contraction. Discrepancies were also noted for Hamilton and Mido, with Swatch Group providing substantially different figures for unit sales and average retail prices compared to those published in the "Swiss Watcher" report, further questioning the analytical foundation of the investment bank's research.

This public disagreement highlights the inherent challenges in analyzing the Swiss watch industry, where many major players are privately owned and do not disclose detailed financial information for individual brands. Analysts, therefore, must rely on estimations, which can lead to disparities when compared with the companies' internal data. The Swatch Group's strong reaction underscores the importance of these industry reports, which, despite their reliance on estimates, significantly influence market perception and investor confidence.